Langgam Pos - A report from Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia highlights the contrasting impact of potential presidential election outcomes on the cryptocurrency market. While a victory for Donald Trump is seen as favorable for crypto, Kamala Harris's win might have the opposite effect.
According to Bernstein's report, the rising probability of Kamala Harris winning the U.S. presidential election could be linked to the recent decline in Bitcoin prices. As reported by Yahoo Finance on Wednesday (14/8/2024), analysts believe that Harris's victory could signal a downturn for cryptocurrencies, given the Democratic Party's typically cautious approach to digital assets and Harris's ambiguous stance on regulation.
With Joe Biden stepping back to support his vice president, Harris's chances have surged in polls and on the crypto prediction market platform Polymarket, which has gained popularity during the current U.S. election cycle.
Recently, Harris has led in polling with a 52% chance of winning the election compared to Trump's 46%. On the other hand, Republican candidate Donald Trump has emerged as a pro-crypto figure, making him a favorite among some investors. Trump's campaign promises include favorable policies for Bitcoin, crypto innovation, and even the potential for a national Bitcoin reserve.
This shift from his previously critical stance on cryptocurrencies aims to attract crypto voters.
The Bernstein report underscores that while Trump's victory is seen as beneficial for the crypto market, Harris's win could have adverse effects. Trump's outreach to crypto companies and miners contrasts sharply with Harris's limited comments on the industry.
Polls: Kamala Harris Leads Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
Kamala Harris has recently taken the lead over Donald Trump in three key battleground states, according to a poll released on Saturday (10/8/2024).
This lead is seen as eroding Trump's dominance in these regions over the past year.
A survey of likely voters conducted by The New York Times and Siena College shows that Democratic presidential candidate Harris leads her Republican rival Trump by the same margin of 50% to 46% in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Under the U.S. electoral college voting system, these three populous Midwestern states are considered crucial for either party's victory, as reported by Japan Today on Sunday (11/8/2024).
Harris's lead appears within the poll's average margin of error of 4.5 points.
Nonetheless, the poll marks a shift compared to previous surveys in these states, which for nearly a year showed Trump either tied with or slightly ahead of Democratic President Joe Biden.
Biden withdrew from the election last month, endorsing Harris in his place, according to Japan Today on Sunday (11/8/2024).
The poll also reveals that voters still favor Trump on key issues such as the economy and immigration, although Harris holds a 24-point lead when voters were asked whom they trust more on the issue of abortion.
Trump Campaign Responds
The Trump campaign dismissed the new poll, questioning its methodology and stating that the poll was released "with the clear intention of suppressing support for President Trump."
Moreover, the Trump team noted that much could change in the nearly three months leading up to the November 5 election.
Regardless, the Democratic Party has enthusiastically embraced Harris's candidacy.
Many supporters expressed relief following Joe Biden's (81) withdrawal from the race.
His announcement of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as his vice-presidential candidate also appears to have energized the Democratic Party.
The surge in Harris-Walz support has helped halt Trump's rising momentum—following the assassination attempt against him on July 13.
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