Langgam Pos - In the second quarter of 2024, Malaysia's economy showcased impressive growth compared to its regional counterparts. According to Moh. Edy Mahmud, Deputy for Balance and Statistical Analysis at BPS (Statistics Indonesia), global manufacturing indicators and monetary policies have bolstered economic performance.
BPS reports that emerging economies are following the IMF's forecasts, with growth in these countries slowing compared to 2023 but remaining higher than the global average.
In Southeast Asia, Malaysia's economy achieved a 5.8% year-on-year growth, surpassing Singapore, which posted a 2.9% year-on-year increase. Indonesia's economy grew by 5.05% in Q2 2024.
"Malaysia's economy grew by 5.8% year-on-year," stated Moh. Edy Mahmud during a press conference at BPS Headquarters, Jakarta, on Monday (August 5, 2024).
Edy noted that this growth aligns with the IMF's July forecast, which predicted stable global economic growth for 2024. Emerging economies are expected to experience a slowdown compared to 2023 but still outperform the global average.
"Global manufacturing PMI indicators suggest that business activity remained in the expansion zone during Q2 2024, indicating continued business growth," he explained.
Domestically, Indonesia's economic performance has been supported by robust domestic activity despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The country's economy grew steadily at 5.08% in the first half of 2024.
Consumer purchasing power has remained strong, evidenced by a 1.14% year-on-year increase in retail sales and a 4.21% year-on-year rise in motorcycle sales. Increased public mobility is reflected in higher passenger numbers across all modes of transportation.
Additionally, monetary policy has supported economic performance in Q2 2024, including maintaining interest rates at 6.25%, which has kept inflation under control.
Indonesia's Economic Growth in Q2 2024
Previously, BPS reported that Indonesia's economy grew by 5.05% year-on-year in Q2 2024. The GDP at current prices was IDR 5,536.5 trillion, while the GDP at constant prices was IDR 3,231 trillion.
"Edy stated that the year-on-year growth rate of 5.05% for Q2 2024 was lower than the previous year’s growth rate of 5.17%," during the BPS release press conference on Monday (August 5, 2024).
Growth in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023 was slightly lower, while the quarterly growth from Q1 2024 was 3.69%, following a seasonal pattern where Q2 usually shows higher growth than Q1.
Rupiah Strengthens Ahead of Indonesia's Economic Growth Report
On Monday (August 5, 2024), the rupiah appreciated against the US dollar in anticipation of the Q2 2024 GDP announcement. The exchange rate strengthened by 35 points or 0.22%, reaching IDR 16,165 per US dollar from IDR 16,200.
Market participants are awaiting the Q2 2024 GDP release, with analysts predicting a 5% year-on-year growth for Indonesia, driven by domestic consumption.
In contrast, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI showed a more significant contraction than expected, dropping to 46.8 in July 2024 from 48.5, marking the steepest decline in eight months.
US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 114,000, well below the 175,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% in July 2024, the highest since October 2024.
US manufacturing orders fell by 3.3% month-on-month to $564.2 billion in June 2024, exceeding market expectations of a 2.9% decline, marking the sharpest drop since January 2024.
"The developments in the US could positively impact the rupiah, despite less favorable data from Indonesia’s PMI Manufacturing, which fell to 49.3 in July 2024 from 50.7, marking the first contraction in factory activity since August 2021," said Reny Eka Putri, Bank Mandiri currency market analyst.
Reny expects the rupiah to trade between IDR 16,138 and IDR 16,225 per US dollar today.
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